Pre-Weekend "Things to Consider"

Essentially odds makers have the ability to pick the most winners because they get to set the opening lines and change the odds as the public makes their picks. So it makes sense to be on the side of the odds maker. But it is not always easy to figure out who the odds makers are pulling for based on dogs and favorites, line moves, and the public pick. So why not just ask one of the odds makers? That is exactly what happened recently in an interview with Jim Vaccaro, and odds maker at Lucky's Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. 


Vaccaro was recently talking about last weeks Texas - Iowa state game as well as some games that are on the board for this up coming weekend. The line of the game originally opened right around 22 on all boards across the nation. The line eventually closed at 20.5 because of heavy early action on Iowa State despite Texas coming of a very good win @ Nebraska. Despite that action, Vaccaro and most of the odds makers across the country were pulling for Iowa State. For what reason? The steep public action on a team very popular with the public like Texas still meant the odds makers had more liability on Texas, despite the number of people who sided with Iowa State. “We couldn’t stop people from using Texas on the parlay cards,” Vaccaro said. “We needed the underdog to win in order to make money" said Vaccaro.  So the odds makers and Vaccaro got what they needed as Iowa State beat Texas outright 28-21. 


This weekend Vaccaro looks at the Texas game again because they are a very popular team with the public much like Notre Dame football and the Dallas Cowboys of the NFL.  Texas is at home again this weekend and again they are favorites by more than a touchdown at -7.5. They face a Baylor team that comes into the weekend sporting a (6-2) record. The Bears are coming of a good 47-42 win over Kansas State but failed to cover the -6.5 point spread on a late sneaky cover by the Wildcats. “I went against my better judgment here. I don’t like Texas for obvious reasons,” Vaccaro said. “I’m penalizing the squares a little bit with this line, even though I don’t have to. Vaccarro and the rest of the book makers are pulling for the Bears, I wouldn't mind being on that side as well. 


Vaccaro takes some serious interest on another Big 12 match up this weekend that looks to be a game with a ton of action due to the high national rankings of the teams involved. Not to mention Missouri is coming off of wins against # 1 Oklahoma and a very legitimate Texas A&M team. Nebraska is set as -7 point favorites after beating Oklahoma State on the road 51-41 while covering a -6.5 point spread late. “Nebraska has been a team that the public latched on to early this season,” the odds maker said. “I think the line will go a little higher." Despite the backing Missouri is bound to start building because of the late big wins, Vaccaro expects the line to get up over a TD. If that is the case, the odds makers will be pulling for a Missouri team that is on the road against a very public heavy Nebraska team. 


Vaccaro also had some interesting insight on some NFL games for the upcoming weekend. Vacarro is blown away with the amount of people who side with the San Diego Chargers this year who have only managed to cover two spreads out of their first 7 games. “It’s like a desperation 3.5 points,” Vaccaro said. “They should be getting 3.5 points. But we’ll take money on the Chargers. People keep chasing them like they are going to bet them until they win a game. I have no idea why.” An odds maker who thinks a team should be home dogs but is actually more than field goal favorites sounds good to us. If people are going to keep taking the Chargers, their line won't change. This week they have a ferocious pass rush in the Tennessee Titans coming in to town. GO TITANS.


Lastly Vacarro discussed a very interesting line, the defending Super Bowl Champions as home dogs. The Saints did lose last weekend at home to the Browns in one of the ugliest loses in recent memory for the bayou bunch. The Steelers are coming of a road win at Miami, a game in which they failed to cover a -3 point spread. “I can’t see anything but Steelers money coming in later in the week,” he said. “I want to see how high I can go, and see if anybody is ready to take the Saints. I might post the highest number in town and see what they do with it. Otherwise, it’s going to be a one-way attack of Steelers money.” An odds maker who wants to see how much he can make the defending super bowl champs home dogs by? We like him and the Champs. WHO DAT?