Written By David Payne
Did you bet Tuesday’s riveting Sun Belt showdown between Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State?
If so, I’m questioning your discipline.
Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe you have seen the Blue Raiders and Red Wolves play a couple of times this season. Maybe you thoroughly handicapped the game, felt you had an advantage and bet it. But I’m guessing that wasn’t the case behind the majority of the increased action Tuesday’s game received.
According to a representative at the Las Vegas Hilton sportsbook, TV games like the one on Tuesday receive an estimated 20 times more action than the same matchup would garner if it was lumped in with Saturday’s slate.
“When it comes to discipline, the issue is compulsiveness, in my mind,” said Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. “If you feel like you have to make a wager because it’s on TV or because it’s a big game or because it’s the last game of the night… those people aren’t going to win long term, because clearly they have discipline issues.”
Look, there are few things I enjoy more than betting on a game and kicking back with a bottle in front of my 6,000-inch flatscreen. It’s fun, and for recreational bettors like me, that’s why we bet – for entertainment. But it’s also the reason why I haven’t made a withdrawal in years. I’m OK with that, because I accept what type of bettor I am.
Have you accepted what type you are?
Covers Expert David Malinsky says the first thing a bettor needs to do is decide if he gambles to make a long-term profit or for recreation.
If you’re in it to win, then you must establish some parameters to determine what is worthy of a wager. You’re looking for certain components that you believe equal an advantage. For some, it’s all about power ratings. For others, it’s all about meeting the qualifications of a system. No matter the rules, the key is to be patient enough to wait for those situations.
Unfortunately, those situations don’t always present themselves on the Monday night game or in the National Championship. Yet, the urge for action on big and small TV games is undeniable and can be tough resist.
“If you are in this to win, you can replace a forced wager with a different kind of action,” explained Malinksy. “Suppose you set a different goal. If you do not have much of an opinion on a game, how about taking the challenge of watching it closely and looking for some edges with each of the teams that you can use going forward?
“Many times when there is a wager on an event,” Malinksy continued, “there is a clarity that is lacking while watching, because of the obvious desire to root for the team that we have wagered on. And that can cloud judgment. We often fall victim to wanting to believe that our bet was the right way to go, even if the game did not flow that way. So instead of that, how about taking the challenge of trying to learn something about the two teams involved in the game?”
Malinsky suggests taking notes during the game, looking for things you believe might pay dividends down the road.
“You can learn much more watching an event than you ever can from the box score in the newspaper the next day, and not only can that help to break the habit of betting something just because it is televised, but instead replace that adrenaline rush with one that can bring just as much interest over time and perhaps significant profits.”
Betting lots of games
It’s easy to automatically assume that someone who bets a dozen or so games on a Saturday is undisciplined. But that’s not always the case.
Sevransky uses poker as an example.
“If you have an edge over the players at your table, then you should be in every hand or as many hands as you can be in,” Sevransky said. “The mismatch that you have is not your cards versus their cards. It’s your skill versus their skill. Similarly in sports betting, if you have an edge, you have an edge, whether it is in five games or 20 games or 50 games. Basic theory says anytime you have a positive expectation wager, you take it.”
But again it comes back to meeting your parameters for a wager.
“I’m not betting a game because it’s on TV,” said Sevransky, “or I’m not betting a game because it’s a good matchup and I think should have a wager on it. No, I’m betting a game because I think I have an edge. And as many games as I feel I have an edge, I’m going to bet them
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