Wednesday Night College Football

It's the start of a brand new week between the lines and it brings a very interesting match-up on Wednesday night college football. Central Florida travels to the hostile environment of Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington, West Virginia to face off with Conference USA rival Marshall. Every surface stat leads you to believe a romp is on the horizon for Central Florida. Last week they took care of business at home against UAB 42-7. On the other side of the ball, Marshall is recovering from a 41-16 beat down at Southern Miss. The low spread of only 5 points for the favored Golden Knights of UCF might make it even more appealing to the public. But when we start to dig a little deeper, the pick doesn't seem so obvious. 


First, UCF didn't exactly dominate on offense against UAB last Saturday. They did capitalize on some very costly mistakes by UAB which led to 21 of their 42 points, including a fumble and an interception returned for six. If we look deeper into this match-up, we learn that the spread was very similar last year when the game was played at Brighthouse Networks Stadium in Florida. UCF again was the favorite but by 7. A late touchdown helped UCF beat the Thundering Heard 21 - 20, but they failed to cover the spread. The total of the game was 43 and stayed under at 41. 


Finally you have to look into the rich history of Marshall football playing at home in Joan C. Edwards Stadium. All time Marshall is 121- 20 in their backyard. This year top 25 foe and rival West Virginia came into Joan C. Edwards Stadium as 13 point favorites. West Virginia had to storm back with 15 fourth quarter points including a touch down pass with 12 seconds left on the clock to steal the game from Marhall. The total was 47 which seems low with a 13 point favorite, however; the game still managed to stay under, even with a combined 22 point 4th quarter. 


UCF does have a tenacious defense, and it will certainly shine against a sub-par offense that Marshall sports. But there is something about Marshall's home turf that turns them into a different animal on game night. Somehow I do like Marshall to cover but I don't think it is the pick of the night.  Marshall has shown they can slow down good running Qb's like they did in their only win of the season at home against Ohio and Boo Jackson. They also held West Virginia's running QB Geno Smith to a staggering 13 yards on 14 carries. We put a lot of research into this one tonight and I really like our conclusion. The public is all about the over with 68% looking for a high scoring affair.  Not going to happen tonight in Huntington. 
THE PICK UNDER 46